Market Collaspe-DOW at all time high!

A Pending Market Collapse! Published: 3/29/2011 by: James B. Driscoll Has the Great Recovery of 2009 & 2010, cast its spell on your valuable life savings? Many people I am meeting with today are shocked to hear my assessment of where the U.S. stock market could potentially be this time next year. Most of those coming into my office today are feeling pretty good about their investments as a whole. After all, Wall Street stockbrokers are touting that the market is BACK! We hear that message when we watch TV, when we listen to the radio, if we read the newspaper…the consensus is - The Market is Back! But that statement is not what matters. What matters is, is your MONEY BACK? On 12/31/2008, the Dow Jones was at 8,776; and a full year later, the Dow closed at 10,428 on 12/31/2009. That represents only an 18% increase in that 12-month period. So why is Wall Street hyping such a great year? It’s because from the low of 6,547 on 3/09/2009 to the finish of the year at 10,428, that represents a staggering 59% increase. But how much of that 59% increase did your portfolio capture? When we hear that the market is up nearly 60%, it has a natural, calming effect to lull us investors to sleep. “Why do I need to make a change? Life is good right now.” But if you don’t have a mechanism that captures those gains, what good does it do you if it can all be taken back WHEN the market corrects again? The market WILL correct; it’s just a matter of when and how sharply. So today when I tell people I believe that the Dow Jones will be a shadow of itself this time next year, everyone’s response is, “Why do you think that?” I answer that by taking you back to 2009 and asking you a question. “What was responsible for driving the market up nearly 60% last year?” What economic indicator was moving in the right direction last year? Take your pick… unemployment was staggering, home prices continued to plummet, foreclosures claimed over 300,000 homes per month in 2009. Over one million families lost their homes in the fourth quarter alone. Maybe one of the least publicized areas of concern has been the collapse in the commercial real estate market. Take a look at how many commercial buildings have a For Sale/For Lease sign posted on their property. So what was responsible for the rise of the stock market in 2009? I believe the answer to that question is that when a government pumps in countless TRILLIONS of dollars into the economy, it is bound to create a lot of HOPE. But the free flow of credit has not materialized. This money is trapped in a terrified lending system. Banks are unwilling to loan the dollars because they don’t know if the individual will have the means to repay the loan. You might have a stellar credit rating, but will you have a job tomorrow? All of this uncertainty has led me to believe that this market is set for a collapse that will make this last go-a-round look like a walk in the park. A market that is so inflated can only be sustained for so long before the proverbial bubble bursts. The market will correct again, it’s just a matter of when and how bad will it be this time. This kind of commentary needs to be tempered with the admission that I don’t have a crystal ball to know what is coming around the bend but rather, I believe it is just common sense when you look at the facts. Can this market just continue to go up and up? Obviously the answer is no. So the most important question to ask yourself is: what is my plan this time to not repeat history again? The tools I specialize in have the unique ability to systematically capture gains from the market. It doesn’t rely on emotional decision making or market timing. This vehicle puts a floor of ZERO losses beneath your feet to allow you to focus on what’s important about life. And best of all, when a gain is captured, that gain is yours for LIFE!!! Since the inception of this tool, no one has ever lost a penny to market losses! I invite you to call my office to discuss any questions that you might have. Sincerely, James B. Driscoll, President

Middle East and Oil

Economic Update: 3/24/ 2011 “Unfolding events that affect the upcoming bear market.” Be prepared for the DOW to drop dramactically, possibly to 4000 by the end of 2010. Now is the time to be liquid, and safe. The Japanese “Black Swan” Event By James B. Driscoll March 24, 2011 ¦ Advertisement Well, I hadn’t planned on writing another column so soon on what to say to clients and prospects regarding a one-off “Black Swan” event, but, none of us expected a tragedy like Japan to occur right after the Middle East blow up. Since many of you used the letter from my last column on the Middle East turmoil to gauge your investments, I thought it would be helpful to share a few thoughts on the devastating situation in Japan. This is first and foremost a human tragedy. The enormity of the unfolding tragedy in Japan has saddened the world. We have never seen a triple tragedy like this with an earthquake, a tsunami and a nuclear disaster all hitting one country at the same time. Like many others, we are hoping and praying the Japanese people will receive the support and resources they need for a speedy recovery. As an advisor, one of my jobs is to prepare for and respond to unforeseen situations like Japan. Here’s how you can use the concept of the “Black Swan” popularized by Nassim Taleb to put these situations in context. It seems like our world has been hit with an unusually large number of Black Swan events over the past few years. Black Swan events are negative events that were once thought to be highly improbable, but actually turn out to happen every few years. Here’s a list of Black Swan events in just the past 15 years. · The late 1990s internet bubble and resulting crash · The 2001 terrorist attacks · The early 2000s real estate bubble and resulting crash · The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and resulting tsunami that killed over 200,000 people · The 2007 – 2009 Great Recession, subprime crisis and related economic problems · The ongoing rebellion in the Middle East and North Africa · The ongoing triple tragedy in Japan · The ongoing real estate bubble and foreclosures which will continue through 2011 · With today’s interconnected world and global communication system, we see these events unfold in near real-time and that amplifies their effect on our psyche. As a result, we have a tendency to think “this is the big one” that will takeout the world economy. However, unless the world is coming to an end—which we don’t think is happening—then the latest situation in Japan will probably cause a hiccup rather than a major burp in the ongoing worldwide recovery. Whenever these Black Swan events occur, it’s important to remember that while we can’t predict when they will occur or what the event will be, we do know they will happen. As such, we use certain strategies in your portfolio to help minimize the negative impact of these expected yet unpredictable events. It’s no surprise to you that as humans, we’re emotional creatures. When three to six-sigma events like Japan happen, those emotions come flowing out of us like sweat in a hot Yoga class. And, like it or not, our emotions affect the markets. Here’s a way to put a “human” face on the markets and make a deeper connection with your clients. It’s interesting to note that when you get to the core of what “the market” is, it’s an assemblage of people. When disasters happen, such as in Japan, or Haiti, or Indonesia or the terrorist attacks; “the market” tends to react almost in sympathy with the external tragedy. Over time, as the external tragedy heals, “the market” tends to heal as well. This symmetry adds an almost human element to what many consider to be a cold and calculating “market.” As humans and the markets heal from their wounds, you need to paint a positive picture of the future for your clients and prospects. Over time as Japan moves from crisis to closure, we expect the world will continue its march toward progress and the markets will resume their positive momentum. Japan’s own history of recovering from World War II gives us an example of their resilience. For example, a March 19, Wall Street Journal article stated, “from 1950 to 1960, in the heyday of the ‘economic miracle’ that followed World War II, Japanese stocks returned an annual average of 27% after inflation.” We’re not predicting a repeat of that over the next 10 years; rather, it illustrates how Japan has bounced back from severe devastation in the past. As humans, we are keenly aware of the pain and suffering these tragic world events inflict upon our collective community. As advisors, we try to ensure that this pain and suffering doesn’t spill over to your portfolio. Finally, I want to share an old Eskimo Proverb that seems quite fitting in these difficult times: “Perhaps they are not stars, but rather openings in heaven where the love of our lost ones pours through and shines down upon us to let us know they are happy.” James B. Driscoll, President

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Economic Update: 3/18/11

Economic Update: 3/24/ 2011 “Unfolding events that affect the upcoming bear market.” Be prepared for the DOW to drop dramactically, possibly to 4000 by the end of 2010. Now is the time to be liquid, and safe. The Japanese “Black Swan” Event By James B. Driscoll March 24, 2011 ¦ Advertisement Well, I hadn’t planned on writing another column so soon on what to say to clients and prospects regarding a one-off “Black Swan” event, but, none of us expected a tragedy like Japan to occur right after the Middle East blow up. Since many of you used the letter from my last column on the Middle East turmoil to gauge your investments, I thought it would be helpful to share a few thoughts on the devastating situation in Japan. This is first and foremost a human tragedy. The enormity of the unfolding tragedy in Japan has saddened the world. We have never seen a triple tragedy like this with an earthquake, a tsunami and a nuclear disaster all hitting one country at the same time. Like many others, we are hoping and praying the Japanese people will receive the support and resources they need for a speedy recovery. As an advisor, one of my jobs is to prepare for and respond to unforeseen situations like Japan. Here’s how you can use the concept of the “Black Swan” popularized by Nassim Taleb to put these situations in context. It seems like our world has been hit with an unusually large number of Black Swan events over the past few years. Black Swan events are negative events that were once thought to be highly improbable, but actually turn out to happen every few years. Here’s a list of Black Swan events in just the past 15 years. · The late 1990s internet bubble and resulting crash · The 2001 terrorist attacks · The early 2000s real estate bubble and resulting crash · The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and resulting tsunami that killed over 200,000 people · The 2007 – 2009 Great Recession, subprime crisis and related economic problems · The ongoing rebellion in the Middle East and North Africa · The ongoing triple tragedy in Japan · The ongoing real estate bubble and foreclosures which will continue through 2011 · With today’s interconnected world and global communication system, we see these events unfold in near real-time and that amplifies their effect on our psyche. As a result, we have a tendency to think “this is the big one” that will takeout the world economy. However, unless the world is coming to an end—which we don’t think is happening—then the latest situation in Japan will probably cause a hiccup rather than a major burp in the ongoing worldwide recovery. Whenever these Black Swan events occur, it’s important to remember that while we can’t predict when they will occur or what the event will be, we do know they will happen. As such, we use certain strategies in your portfolio to help minimize the negative impact of these expected yet unpredictable events. It’s no surprise to you that as humans, we’re emotional creatures. When three to six-sigma events like Japan happen, those emotions come flowing out of us like sweat in a hot Yoga class. And, like it or not, our emotions affect the markets. Here’s a way to put a “human” face on the markets and make a deeper connection with your clients. It’s interesting to note that when you get to the core of what “the market” is, it’s an assemblage of people. When disasters happen, such as in Japan, or Haiti, or Indonesia or the terrorist attacks; “the market” tends to react almost in sympathy with the external tragedy. Over time, as the external tragedy heals, “the market” tends to heal as well. This symmetry adds an almost human element to what many consider to be a cold and calculating “market.” As humans and the markets heal from their wounds, you need to paint a positive picture of the future for your clients and prospects. Over time as Japan moves from crisis to closure, we expect the world will continue its march toward progress and the markets will resume their positive momentum. Japan’s own history of recovering from World War II gives us an example of their resilience. For example, a March 19, Wall Street Journal article stated, “from 1950 to 1960, in the heyday of the ‘economic miracle’ that followed World War II, Japanese stocks returned an annual average of 27% after inflation.” We’re not predicting a repeat of that over the next 10 years; rather, it illustrates how Japan has bounced back from severe devastation in the past. As humans, we are keenly aware of the pain and suffering these tragic world events inflict upon our collective community. As advisors, we try to ensure that this pain and suffering doesn’t spill over to your portfolio. Finally, I want to share an old Eskimo Proverb that seems quite fitting in these difficult times: “Perhaps they are not stars, but rather openings in heaven where the love of our lost ones pours through and shines down upon us to let us know they are happy.” James B. Driscoll, President

Estate, Financial and Tax Adisor

The Japanese “Black Swan” Event By James B. Driscoll March 24, 2011 Well, I hadn’t planned on writing another column so soon on what to say to clients and prospects regarding a one-off “Black Swan” event, but, none of us expected a tragedy like Japan to occur right after the Middle East blow up. Since many of you used the letter from my last column on the Middle East turmoil, I thought it would be helpful to share a few thoughts on the devastating situation in Japan. This is first and foremost a human tragedy. The enormity of the unfolding tragedy in Japan has saddened the world. We have never seen a triple tragedy like this with an earthquake, a tsunami and a nuclear disaster all hitting one country at the same time. Like many others, we are hoping and praying the Japanese people will receive the support and resources they need for a speedy recovery. As an advisor, one of my jobs is to prepare for and respond to unforeseen situations like Japan. Here’s how you can use the concept of the “Black Swan” popularized by Nassim Taleb to put these situations in context. It seems like our world has been hit with an unusually large number of Black Swan events over the past few years. Black Swan events are negative events that were once thought to be highly improbable, but actually turn out to happen every few years. Here’s a list of Black Swan events in just the past 15 years. o The late 1990s internet bubble and resulting crash o The 2001 terrorist attacks o The early 2000s real estate bubble and resulting crash o The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and resulting tsunami that killed over 200,000 people o The 2007 – 2009 Great Recession, subprime crisis and related economic problems o The ongoing rebellion in the Middle East and North Africa o The ongoing triple tragedy in Japan With today’s interconnected world and global communication system, we see these events unfold in near real-time and that amplifies their effect on our psyche. As a result, we have a tendency to think “this is the big one” that will takeout the world economy. However, unless the world is coming to an end—which we don’t think is happening—then the latest situation in Japan will probably cause a hiccup rather than a major burp in the ongoing worldwide recovery. Whenever these Black Swan events occur, it’s important to remember that while we can’t predict when they will occur or what the event will be, we do know they will happen. As such, we use certain strategies in your portfolio to help minimize the negative impact of these expected yet unpredictable events. It’s no surprise to you that as humans, we’re emotional creatures. When three to six-sigma events like Japan happen, those emotions come flowing out of us like sweat in a hot Yoga class. And, like it or not, our emotions affect the markets. Here’s a way to put a “human” face on the markets and make a deeper connection with your clients. It’s interesting to note that when you get to the core of what “the market” is, it’s an assemblage of people. When disasters happen, such as in Japan, or Haiti, or Indonesia or the terrorist attacks; “the market” tends to react almost in sympathy with the external tragedy. Over time, as the external tragedy heals, “the market” tends to heal as well. This symmetry adds an almost human element to what many consider to be a cold and calculating “market.” As humans and the markets heal from their wounds, you need to paint a positive picture of the future for your clients and prospects. Over time as Japan moves from crisis to closure, we expect the world will continue its march toward progress and the markets will resume their positive momentum. Japan’s own history of recovering from World War II gives us an example of their resilience. For example, a March 19, Wall Street Journal article stated, “from 1950 to 1960, in the heyday of the ‘economic miracle’ that followed World War II, Japanese stocks returned an annual average of 27% after inflation.” We’re not predicting a repeat of that over the next 10 years; rather, it illustrates how Japan has bounced back from severe devastation in the past. As humans, we are keenly aware of the pain and suffering these tragic world events inflict upon our collective community. As advisors, we try to ensure that this pain and suffering doesn’t spill over to your portfolio. Finally, I want to share an old Eskimo Proverb that seems quite fitting in these difficult times: “Perhaps they are not stars, but rather openings in heaven where the love of our lost ones pours through and shines down upon us to let us know they are happy.” James B. Driscoll, President Senior Services ~ 1-800-797-1594 www.jamesbdriscoll.com

Safe Money - Annuities

Should Annuities Be a Part of Your Retirement Portfolio?

Posted on  February 15, 2011 ~ James B. Driscoll, President of Senior Services.

Annuities

Oh, the irony.  Annuities are taking a bad rap these days, at a time when they should be held up as the ultimate retirement solution in many cases.  Over the last decade, annuity products have evolved tremendously, offering features previously unheard of; while during the same period, the market has driven seniors away in droves.  After the blind optimism

of the late 1990′s and the inevitable market landslide since, retirement priorities have returned to what they should have always been; long-term perspective and safety.  While the vast array of annuity products today offers so much more, the basis of the annuity remains the same; the offer of safety and, as necessary, the guaranty of never outliving one’s assets.

There is no safer vehicle than a fixed annuity.  Insurance companies are required to maintain reserves far greater than those of  banks and credit unions, and state guaranty funds provide higher protection limits than the FDIC.  AIG, for example, has been completely solvent in terms of annuity deposits and claims paying ability, even though the company was in tremendous financial trouble.  Even without the government bailout, no AIG annuity holders were ever in any danger, even if the company had completely dissolved.  While variable annuities (VA) do not all offer the same safety of principle as fixed annuities, they offer other advantages, including tax treatment roughly equal to qualified retirement plans such as traditional IRAs and 401(k)s; but have very high expenses [as high as 3% - 4% annually].  Plus annual fees and trails of up to 1-1 ½ % that the brokers get paid. 

Finally, this modern era of guaranteed investment products has introduced the equity index annuity (EIA), commonly referred to as the fixed index annuity (FIA); emphasizing that it does not actually invest in equities indexed annuities, but offers credited gains relating to any of several available indices of the investor’s choosing.  One has the opportunity to profit from market gains with no risk of financial loss.  Over the last decade, the S&P index has just about netted a zero gain; in the last five years, it has fallen very slightly; in each of the last three years, it has lost nearly three percent on average.  Three years ago, this article’s author transferred one of his father’s retirement accounts into an indexed annuity that has averaged about 6.2 percent annually, tax deferred, with ZERO RISK!  When the lowest an account can yield in a given year is zero, the potential is phenomenal.  The buzz phrase in the industry is “zeroes are heroes.”

Detractors of the annuity cite such criticisms as high expenses and commissions.  In actuality, annuities have expense charges commensurate with the risks they are insuring against; and the commission structure reflects the fact that an advisor gets paid only once for the management of his client’s account, rather than racking up management and trade fees continually throughout the lifetime of an account.  Also, the returns on annuity products are illustrated net of fees; they could not possibly be more transparent, and there is no incentive for the advisor to engage in unnecessary and potentially costly transactions.

So, should annuities be a part of every retirement portfolio?  Certainly not every one; but they are certainly appropriate for most people.  As with ANY financial product, annuities are not better or worse than other options; they are better for certain individuals in certain situations.  Select an independent financial planner or advisor who specializes in comprehensive planning, particularly in retirement  , estate, tax and senior planning.

James B. Driscoll, President of Senior Services.

You may contact us at:   1-800-797-1594

Susan RoAne - Mingling Maven

Susan RoAne - Mingling Maven